By Carlos Cinco

With three episodes of Pacquiao – Cotto 24/7 down and only one to go, I think we’ve seen everything that needs to be seen already. There should be no more surprises left until the night of the fight itself. The premise is clear. It will be multidivisional champion Manny Pacquiao, the consensus pound for pound best in Boxing, ready to prove that he is as great a Welterweight as he was in the lower weight classes. He will do so against Miguel Cotto, a fighter eager to prove to the world that he still belongs among the elite class of fighters, still a force to be reckoned with and ready to again take on the sport’s toughest challengers. It is also clear that either man can come out with the victory. I think the fight can play out in a few scenarios, which one however, will have to wait until November 14th until we find out.

Scenario 1: Pacquiao Outspeeds Cotto to a Unanimous Decision

Pacquiao, as expected, was too fast for Cotto, moving in and out of range while effectively landing power shots and scoring points en route to a Unanimous Decision over twelve rounds. Cotto had his moments but ultimately did not have enough success to eke out a victory. In the end, Pacquiao did to Cotto what he did to Diaz and Dela Hoya, which was complete domination. Cotto proves he is a warrior by surviving the fight without getting knocked out and by never giving up.

Scenario 2: Pacquiao via Early KO

A la Ricky Hatton, Cotto is confused by Pacquiao’s awkward pace, never really figuring out how to time him. As a result, a phantom left straight hits Cotto square on the chin rocking the Puerto Rican. Pacquiao, smelling blood and a million dollar showdown with the Pretty Boy, moves in for the kill overwhelming Cotto and he either sends Cotto down or the referee stops the fight due to unanswered punches. Thousands of Pacquiao fans in attendance enter a frenzied state of mind, screaming, shouting and jumping around, among them is Mark Wahlberg.

Scenario 3: Pacquiao via Late Round KO

The fight starts off slow with both fighters feeling each other out. Cotto is aggressive to start early on, Pacquiao seems content with just boxing. A couple wars break out in the middle of the ring and Pacquiao comes away getting the better of the exchanges. Over the next few rounds Cotto is broken down by left hands, maybe even suffering a cut or two. Towards the end of the fight, Pacquiao clearly has more stamina and is landing at will. He sends Cotto crashing into the canvass via a crushing 1-2 combination that Cotto never saw coming. The fight ends and Pacquiao enters Boxing immortality.

Scenario 4: Cotto by Unanimous Decision

Doing exactly what he did against Zab Judah and Shane Mosley, Cotto times Pacquiao perfectly, boxing beautifully. Pacquiao, showing glimpses of how he was once considered one-dimensional, simply follows Cotto around the ring too much. Roach gets frustrated but never gives up and Pacquiao finally adjusts. However, it was too little too late as by this time Cotto had already won most of the rounds. Cotto plays it smart and boxes to the end. Cotto wins on points and calls out Antonio Margarito or Floyd Mayweather in the post fight interview with Larry Merchant. He and Brian Perez hit one of the many buffets on the Vegas strip.

Scenario 5: Cotto by Early KO

Cotto starts the fight off very strong, showing no after effects of the imposed catchweight. He quickly makes it known to his opponent as with the entire world that this fight was actually a mismatch and Pacquiao had bitten off more than he can chew. With full Welterweight force behind each punch, Cotto digs an emphatic shot to the liver and follows it up with a fight-ending left hook to the jaw. The Philippines declares November 15th a day of personal reflection. Mayweather appears at the post fight presser and disses Pacquiao saying he was never truly P4P No. 1, but still refuses to fight Miguel Cotto. Reports leak out that Juan Manuel Marquez was seen having a late dinner with Oscar and Uncle Bob sometime after the fight.

Scenario 6: Cotto by Late Round KO

The fight is pretty even up into the middle rounds. The difference here is that Cotto is effectively able to land shots to the body of Pacquiao, breaking down and slowing the fiery Filipino. As the fight progresses, more shots land for Cotto and he’s finding increased accuracy against a weakened Pacquiao. Pacquiao has some success but it clearly isn’t affecting Cotto too much. Cotto banishes his inner demons and erases any memory of the beating he took from Antonio Margarito from our minds and from his. Pacquiao’s victory concert is cancelled.

More or less, barring any accidental headbutts, disqualifications, shady judging, split decisions or draws, this is how the fight can turn out. Personally, I think scenario 1 and scenario 3 have the best chances of happening. What do you think? read more


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